Can you believe the delayed, skewed jobs report? The business survey shows 204,000 new jobs…
Today, it looks like both stocks and bonds are higher, which is a good thing for everyone. It may be the Initial Jobless Claims report we have to thank for that. Last weeks figures were only revised upward by 2,000, which is a marginal increase compared to how summer figures are generally adjusted later. There are several market factors in the summer that can distort the numbers, so to be revised by so small an amount is not that bad at all. The report also shows that 333,000 new applicants applied for unemployment benefits, which is lower that the 340,000 that was estimated. The economy continues to improve, albeit at a begrudgingly slow pace. It should be interesting to see how things shape up in the next few months, if the Fed begins tapering and once the new health care system begins to show it’s true effects on the job market.
Rates are somewhat lower today, but the Treasury plans on releasing $16 Billion worth of 30-year bonds, which may have a significant impact on rate sheets. There was a reasonably strong demand for 3 and 10-year notes, so we may actually see rates improve if the auction goes well.
August 8, 2013 our updated mortgage rates in Florida are:
- 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage – 4.125% (4.341% APR)
- 15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage – 3.125% (3.526% APR)
Fed Update: Tapering may or may not begin next month, but it’s important that everyone be prepared for how this may affect them. The Fed currently has the option of reducing both Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasury sales. A reduction in MBS could adversely affect interest rates, but probably not by as much as everyone thinks. If the Fed only reduces their purchases by $20 billion or so, they’d still be buying more than the supply, and our rates will remain at a manageable level. More than this, and we can expect interest rates to rise. However, both because we don’t think the Fed wants interest rates to go up, and also because the Fed does have the option, we think it’s possible they’ll reduce treasury spending first and reduce MBS at a later date. If MBS purchases are reduced later, we doubt it’ll be more than the $20B benchmark. So, maybe tapering won’t be as bad as everyone seems to think!
Check back tomorrow to get the newest rate updates!